Migration to suburbs on the rise again

A 1950s flashback

Not many of today’s Millennial and Gen Z clan members will be familiar with the term ‘Baby Boomers’, or realise that they may share common traits with that generation and era in (especially, but not exclusively) American history. The moniker applies to people born between 1946 and 1964, and apart from their urge to people the planet, Baby Boomers were also known to choose the “burbs in pursuit of an ideal lifestyle”.

The Depression and WWII had created a post-war housing crisis. To help avail decent, affordable homes, governments established suburban housing projects. Middle- and working-class families rushed to buy or rent homes in these new developments.

Moving to the metros

With more than half (55%) of the global population already living in cities, forecasters predict that this number will rise to 70% by 2050. Then, in a swift turnabout, residents in metros around the world started moving back to suburbia.

Cobus Odendaal, CEO of Lew Geffen Sotheby’s International Realty in Johannesburg and Randburg, confirms that suburban migration is likely to increase over the next few years. ‘This can be largely attributed to three primary drivers, namely pricing, the pandemic, and the millennial influence.’

Odendaal explains that city living has gradually become extremely expensive, with property prices precluding a majority of first-time buyers from owning homes in and around metros. Similarly, soaring rental costs have forced people to reside in cheaper outlying areas.

‘Until 2020, this was a pressing challenge as living in close proximity to work was essential, and those with city-centre offices preferred not to waste hours battling traffic congestion or overcrowded public transport.

‘However, since Covid-19, remote working and flexible office hours have become the norm and, with high connectivity available almost everywhere, many people can now live where they choose, rather than be limited to areas with the easiest commute,’ he says.

Gen Tech

Millennials, born between the mid-1990s and early 2000s, today comprise the largest property-buying buying demographic. Having been born in the age of technology, they have vastly different needs and priorities from those of their predecessors.

Says Constantiaberg secure estate specialist Stephan Thomas: ‘It’s become critical that estates have reliable high-speed internet connectivity. And if they have sports facilities, so much the better for those who work from home, as they can take a break without having to leave the estate and waste time driving to a gym.’

For the same reason, estates are creating or upgrading resident walkways and mountain bike trails. Thomas mentions Stonehurst Mountain Estate, in Cape Town’s Constantia Valley, as sterling example of a Millennial-friendly development.

‘Residents enjoy free access to the lifestyle centre, which includes a first-class gym, café, restaurant, swimming pool, bar, crèche and recreation areas at no extra cost to homeowners’ levies. Like many other estates, Stonehurst also recently upgraded its fibre to cater for today’s generation of homeowners.’

Footsteps of the fathers

Odendaal says the fact that Millennials are getting older, and following in their parents’ footsteps by heading out of town, leaves potential investors questioning whether the exodus from cities is likely to continue for the foreseeable future.

‘Is it a knee-jerk reaction to lockdown confinement and short-lived response to the pandemic’s economic fallout? People who endured months in compact apartments have a new appreciation for outdoor living spaces, and families who recently traded city living for the suburbs may not want to give up the newfound luxury of space.’

Thomas adds: ‘Traditionally, most of our buyers in estates have been families, but we’re now fielding more enquiries from professionals who predominantly work from home or flexi-time, and so have the freedom to live where they prefer, rather than close to work.

‘And it’s not only South Africans. Some of our most recent clients are a British couple who both retained their jobs in London but, being able to work remotely, have decided that our lifestyle and climate suits them better.’

Taking these factors into account, investors would do well to set their sights on suburban developments for many years to come.